Migrants Steal the Market Share

It is a tricky topic for right-wing political parties in most developed countries. Raising the issueof immigration at once provokes accusations of racism; but ignoring it goes down poorly with core supporters, for most of whom it is deeply worrying. In the run-up to the 2005 general election, Britain's Conservative Party got it badly wrong, plastering the country with posters trumpeting the truism: "It's not racist to impose limits on immigration", followed by a sly insinuation: "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" Since neither of the other two main parties was talking about immigration at all, both were free to shoot at this wide-open goal without saying anything on the matter themselves.

How times have changed. On October 29th David Cameron gave his first big speech on immigration since becoming leader of the Conservatives after they lost that election. In government, he said, his party would create a border police force with powers to remove illegal immigrants. It would limit migration from future members of the European Union and set yearly targets for workers from outside the eu, balancing demandson infrastructure against economic benefits. Non-European spouses of British residents would have to be 21 before they could join their partners.

The fortuitous timing of a chaotic series of revisions to immigration statistics made it easier for Mr. Cameron to broach this touchy subject. On October 8th Peter Hain, the secretary of state for work and pensions, told Parliament that 800,000 migrant workers had taken jobs in Britain since 1997. On October 29th his department admitted this number was wrong, and increased it to 1.1m. The fog thickened on October 30th when a letter from the national statistician dated July 18th came to light, saying that 1.5m people born abroad had taken jobs in Britain over the past ten years.

All three main parties now recognise that immigration is important to voters, and growing more so. According to Martin Weale, an economist who co-authored a 2006 report on immigration that turns out to have been prescient about its true scale, one reason why the government has been slow to twig to popular concern is that it has been mesmerized by the observation that immigration has led to economic growth overall. "But what you and I notice is our share of growth," he says, "and that could be going down at the same time." On October 30th local-government bodies reminded the government that recent migration had badly stretched schools, hospitals and housing in some neighbourhoods.

Still more vexed is the question of how immigration isaffecting employment. Many worry that cheap, hard-working, well-educated foreign workers make life easier for those who employ them but harder for low-skilled locals who might previously have been hiredand then brought up to scratch on the job. Yet another statistical revision this week smashed a totemic government claim that most of the new jobs created since 1997 have gone to Britons: fewer than half have done. And in the two years from the spring of 2005, 540,000 foreigners have found jobs in Britain while 270,000 British workers have lost them.

Though immigration is providing the parties with powerful political ammunition, the policies they are proposing to deal with it are strikingly similar. Take Mr. Cameron's promises to impose restrictionson workers from countries that join the eu in the future, and on foreign spouses. Both are already Labour policy. The government raised the age limit for spouses in family-reunion cases from 16 to 18 earlier this year, and said it would soon raise it to 21. And on October 30th the countries currently queuing to join the eu were sent a clear signal by Labour when Bulgarians and Romanians, who became eu citizens earlier this year, were told that supposedly temporary restrictions on their ability to work in Britain were to be extended.

Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats, Britain's third party, boast that the "points scheme" for non-eu migrants due to start in 2008 was first mooted by them. Like the Tories, they want a national border force and emphasise the importance of local planning for population changes.

One cause of this sudden volubility and consensus is that the scale of the increase in immigration since 2004 has only recently became apparent. Perhaps 600,000 workers have already arrived from the ten countries that joined the eu in 2004, 20 times more than the government predicted. But no one knows exactly. Even the recently revised numbers are inferred from two surveys rather than counted directly. Both have limitations.

In his speech on October 29th, Mr. Cameron cleverly framed immigration in broader questions of demography and social cohesion. He also expounded on family breakdown and the difficulties posed by an ageing population. Tighter restrictionson foreign spouses were presented as a measure to prevent forced marriages, rather than to keep people out. He will, however, have pleased his right wing by saying that immigration should be "substantially lower" – a statement that other parties have so far avoided.

What has been missed by almost everyone in the debate, however, is that most immigration is out of the hands of politicians. Foreign-born holders of British passports, eu residents and spouses of those already in Britain make up the vast majority of newcomers. The remainder, at whom all these tough-sounding policies are aimed, account forat most a third.

(The Source: adapted from www.economist.com/node/10063908 )

C. Complete the table with information from the text:

The impact of immigration on the British economy
positive	negative
1. immigration has led to economic growth overall	1. migration had badly stretched schools, hospitals and housing in some neighbourhoods
2. …	2. …
3. …	3. …
4. …	4. …
5. …	5. …

D. Read the text again and answer the questions below:

1. Is the issue of immigration a topical one in GB? Why?

2. Why is it essential to impose limits on immigration?

3. How can the government balance demands on infrastructure against economic benefits from migrant workers?

4. What are advantages and disadvantages of imposing restrictions for foreign workers and local ones?

5. How many people born abroad have taken jobs in Britain over the past ten years?

6. What are the possible steps to low immigration? Could local planning for population change be one of them?

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