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Interstate conflicts

The international system will have to adjust to changing power relations in key regions.

- China’s potential. Estimates of China beyond five years are unpredictable. Some projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the growth of its economic and military capabilities. Other projections indicate that political, social, and economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and legitimacy of the region. Most assessments today argue that China will seek to avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth and to ensure internal stability. A strong China, others assert, would seek to adjust regional power arrangements to its advantage, risking conflict with neighbors and some powers external to the region. A weak China would increase prospects for criminality, narcotics trafficking, illegal migration, WMD proliferation, and widespread social instability.

- Japan’s uncertainty. In the view of many experts, Japan will have difficulty maintaining its correct position as the world’s third largest economy by 2015.Tokyo has so far not shown a willingness to carry through the painful economic reforms necessary to slaw the erosion of its leadership role in Asia. In the absence of an external shock, Japan is similarly unlikely to accelerate changes in security policy.

- India’s prospects. India will strengthen its role as a regional power, but many uncertainties about the effect of global trends on its society cast doubt on how far India will go. India faces growing extremes between wealth and poverty, a mixed picture on natural resources, and problems with internal governance.

The changing dynamics of state power will combine with other factors to affect the risk of conflict in various regions. Changing military capabilities will be prominent among the factors that determine the risk of war. In South Asia, for example, the risk will remain fairly high as India and Pakistan are both prone to miscalculation. Both will continue to build up their nuclear and missile forces. A noticeable increase in the size of India’s arsenal, however, would prompt Pakistan to further increase the size of its own arsenal.

China by 2015 will have deployed tens to several tens of missiles with nuclear warheads targeted against the United States, mostly more survivable land –and sea – based mobile missiles.it also will have hundreds of shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles for use in regional conflicts

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will remain the world’s largest military, but the majority of the force will not be fully modernized by 2015.China could close the technological gap with the West in one of more major weapons systems. China’s capability for regional military operations is likely to improve significantly by 2015.

- China will be exploiting advanced weapons and production technologies acquired from abroad – Russia, Israel, Europe, Japan, and the United States – than will enable it to integrate naval and air capabilities against Taiwan and potential adversaries in the South China Sea.

- In the event of a peaceful resolution of a Taiwan issue, some of China’s military objectives – such as protecting the sea lanes for Persian Gulf oil- could become closer to those of the United States .Nevertheless, as an emerging regional power, China would continue to expand its influence without regard to US interests.

Answer the questions using the active vocabulary.

1) What will the international system have to adjust to ?

2) What are estimates of China beyond five years?

3) What is the forecast for Japan?

4) What are both India and Pakistan prone to?

5) Will India and Pakistan reduce their nuclear and missile forces?

Using the active vocabulary render the context of the article in English

Task 15:

Tasks for presentations:

1. The position of Japan in the world economy. Do you agree that Japan can lose its positions in the world economy? What way can this influence Russian Japanese relations?

2. The Chinese perspective forecast. Would China continue to expand its influence without regard to US interests?

2. What is your forecast for Russia in the world economy over the next 15 years?

Task 16:

Choose one of the following topics and prepare a 4-5 minute speech on it.

1. Political aspects of terrorism

2 .Legal aspects of terrorism

3. Psychological aspects of terrorism.

Task 17:

Debates

Make a presentation on the topic: “Security versus Civil Liberty.” Give arguments and counter - arguments.

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