Nature of Expansion

"Despite layoffs and downsizingby corporations and government, a substantial group of workers hold stable jobs," said the chief author of the report. "What seems like higher instability may actually reflect the greater number of jobs that younger workers must hold before finding a permanent one."

The question of job tenure may seem arcanebut it lies at the center of the controversy over the nature of the current economic expansion. Even in the U.S., where the number of jobs is dwindling,they say thisexplains the widespread perception of economic insecurity

But data suggest this perceptionis flawed.Economists in the U.S. generally have found no significant declines in job-tenure rates. "You can't say we've gone from an economy of lifetime jobs to one with day-to-day jobs," said David Neumark, an economist at University of Michigan.

A widely cited study last year by Princeton University found that 20% of all U.S. workers between the ages of 45 and 54 say they have worked more than 20 years for the same employer. The percentage was the same in 1973.

In Europe,the picture is similar, according to the ILOstudy, which appears to be the first to compare job-tenure rates across countries. In Australia, based on current data, one-quarter of working men have been with the same employer for at least ten years. In Canada, the figure is 27%. In France, the figure is 38.7%. In Germany (excluding what was formerly East Germany), the figure is 40.7%, in Spain – 36%.

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